Apologies for the lengthy delay in getting another update out. The truth is not much has happened and my portfolio values remain very similar to where they were in the last update. Markets, however, have changed quite a bit.

As for today, when we look back at the mid-2025 market, I think that the signs of overvaluation will be easy to identify:

I find that nothing feels like a deal right now. Are there stocks I’d like to be invested in because I like the company? Absolutely. But, in full transparency, I sold my $HOOD shares in totality because I just can’t square this parabolic trend continuing without some sort of reversion. It’s sitting above all the major moving averages, the Bollinger Bands are completely widened, RSI is patently overbought, and earnings are tomorrow—which I am sure will be fantastic, given cryptocurrencies have been going wild. How this isn’t a “sell the news” event is beyond me, though. Still, I’ll be looking to sell cash-secured puts into the volatility on any significant downward movement ahead of Wednesday’s close.

I’m still sitting in my $GRAB shares, and I’ve actually added a few to the pile in the past few sessions. There was an after-hours spike yesterday to $5.75—one that I probably should have sold into temporarily, but didn’t. I’m still bullish on this company in the medium-to-long-term, but I’m losing faith in the current macro environment to a worsening degree.

I believe there’s a really nasty set-up as this earnings season matures. Tomorrow, we have what will likely be the most impactful reporting day of the season. $MSFT and $META are both reporting, and that’ll give us most of the MAG7 results the market needs to confirm or deny its suspicions. So far, it looks like earnings are meeting sky-high expectations. But I’m not quite sure meeting expectations is enough. In fact, exceeding them has actually not been the tailwind some of the larger stocks needed to resume forward momentum. $GOOG is a good example; even though they knocked it out of the park, the stock price has been flat to lower. No doubt this will be a long-term winner, but why isn’t it doing better?

My theory is the market is overextended and everyone knows it. There’s a huge game of chicken being played between retail and institutional money and where we are at the end of the week is going to dictate the medium-term for growth stocks, in particular. Why? Well, most of the major reporting will be finished by Thursday’s close, and Friday morning is the catalyst of catalysts: Non-Farm Payrolls. Retail hasn’t even noticed this is happening yet because of the euphoria in the market, but surely, everyone will be talking about it in less than 24 hours.